Socialist Zohran Mamdani leads Andrew Cuomo in final poll before Dem primary: Emerson College poll

A new poll released on Monday, just one day ahead of New York City’s Democratic primary election, has found that socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani has jumped ahead of former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

The Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey found that in the final round of its simulated ranked choice vote, Mamdani defeated Cuomo 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent. 

Eight rounds of ranked choice voting were conducted in the survey, with no candidate reaching the 50 percent threshold until the eighth round with Mamdani’s win. In the first round, Mamdani received 33.7 percent of the vote to Cuomo’s 36.4 percent. City Comptroller Brad Lander received 13.3 percent in the first round, with all other candidates receiving under 10 percent. 

Cuomo held the lead in the simulated ranked choice vote through the seventh round, with Cuomo receiving 40.5 percent of the vote to Mamdani’s 39.4 percent, while Lander received 20.1 percent and was knocked out.

Emerson College Polling, which conducted the survey, noted that Mamdani has jumped 10 points from May in the initial round of ranked choice voting, from 22 percent to 32 percent, while Cuomo gained just one point. 

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement, "Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began. In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll."

The poll was conducted between June 18 and 20 of Democratic primary voters. The first round of ranked choice voting included 800 likely voters, and had a margin of error of 3.3 percent. The final round included 729 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.6 percent. 

Among those who have already cast their ballots during the early voting period, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 10 points. However, among those who plan to vote on election day or had not yet voted at the time of the survey, Cuomo leads by five points. 

Emerson College Polling noted that voters under the age of 50 lean toward Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo leads among oters ages 50 and older. Cuomo leads Mamdani among Hispanic and black voters, while Mamdani leads among white and Asian voters. 

The New York Post said that a final result is unlikely to be determined on Election Day Tuesday, with absentee ballots, the ranked choice voting system, and other processes slowing the results for potentially weeks. 

Even once the results are in, Cuomo and Mamdani may still appear on the general election ballot under different parties than Democrat, with Mamdani potentially running under the Working Families Party ticket, and Cuomo running under his "Fight and Deliver" party. If they continue to run, the two will face off against Eric Adams, the current New York City mayor whose running as an independent, as well as Republican nominee Curtis Silwa and independent Jim Walden.