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PULSE POINTS:
❓What Happened: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged alliance members to increase defense spending, suggesting the current two percent GDP target is insufficient.
👥 Who’s Involved: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, British Defence Secretary John Healey, and former U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
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📍 Where & When: Press conference on Wednesday; NATO leaders to meet in The Hague later this month.
💬 Key Quote: “The expectation is that on the European side of NATO and the Canadian side of NATO, if we think that we can keep ourselves safe sticking with the two percent, forget it.” – Mark Rutte.
⚠️ Impact: NATO nations may face increased pressure to raise their defense budgets, with potential calls for spending as high as five percent of GDP.
IN FULL:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has called on alliance members to significantly increase defense spending, arguing that the current two percent GDP target is inadequate for maintaining security. Speaking at a press conference on June 4, Rutte emphasized the need for European NATO members and Canada to contribute more, aligning their efforts with the United States, which currently spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense.
“The expectation is that on the European side of NATO and the Canadian side of NATO, if we think that we can keep ourselves safe sticking with the two percent, forget it,” Rutte stated. He warned that sticking to the current target could leave member nations in “great difficulty” within the next three to five years.
The former Dutch prime minister is reportedly advocating for a new spending target of 3.5 percent of GDP on military expenditures, with an additional 1.5 percent allocated to defense-related measures. The issue is expected to be a central topic when NATO leaders convene in The Hague later this month, where a new “investment plan” will be discussed.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to raise British defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by April 2027, with a longer-term goal of reaching three percent in the next parliament, potentially extending to 2034. However, Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey are under scrutiny over how this target will be achieved.
Healey defended the United Kingdom’s contributions to NATO, citing recent investments. “We’ve published a defense review that has NATO at its heart,” he claimed, highlighting £4 billion allocated for drone technology and £1 billion for laser weapons development. He also noted the United Kingdom’s unique role in contributing to nuclear deterrence for the alliance.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump and his NATO representative, Matthew Whitaker, have previously called for alliance members to commit to a five percent GDP defense spending target. This push underscores ongoing debates about equitable burden-sharing within NATO, where the U.S. pulls the lion’s share of the military weight.
Trump has long advocated for NATO members to spend more on their militaries. However, few countries even meet prior spending commitments, let alone potential new ones that may be even higher.
Image via the Ukrainian Presidency.
PULSE POINTS:
❓What Happened: Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is set to evaluate the House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” for compliance with Senate rules under the Byrd Rule.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
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📍 Where & When: U.S. Senate, June 2025.
⚠️ Impact: Key provisions of Trump’s bill, including those limiting federal court powers and restricting Medicaid funds for abortion clinics, could be struck down, potentially weakening the legislation.
IN FULL:
President Donald J. Trump‘s budget reconciliation bill, which implements and funds a large part of the America First leader’s second-term agenda, is beginning to work its way through the United States Senate. However, the legislation, also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” will face its most perilous test from one of the Senate’s non-elected officials—Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.
Serving as the Senate Parliamentarian since 2o12, MacDonough will be tasked with evaluating a bevy of points-of-order raised by Senate Democrats and other opponents of the bill, including Senator Rand Paul (R-KY). These points of order will challenge the legislation’s key provisions on several factors that could disqualify their inclusion, including whether the provision reduces non-discretionary (mandatory) spending, increases the deficit after the 10-year budget window, or if a policy provision is nongermine to the budget change.
The budget reconciliation process gives the Senate Parliamentarian tremendous power over legislation, despite being an unelected official. While the presiding officer of the Senate—technically the Vice President, but in practice usually the Senate Majority Leader—can override any ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian, such instances are beyond rare. The most notable occurrence was in 1975, when Vice President Nelson Rockefeller attempted to overrule the Senate Parliamentarian regarding Senate procedural rules. This led both the Republican and Democrat leaders in the Senate to hold an emergency meeting, create a compromise ruling, and circumvent Rockefeller so as to avoid setting any concrete precedent of the presiding officer actually overruling the Senate Parliamentarian.
WHO IS MACDONOUGH?
Senate Parliamentarians are almost always selected from the Office of the Parliamentarian to ensure continuity. The office itself was only created in 1935. The current Senator, Elizabeth MacDonough, has served since 2012, when she was elevated to the role by then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).
Despite being appointed by Reid, MacDonough has been critical of the late Nevada Democrat’s 2013 decision to use a procedural maneuver to alter Senate rules and use the so-called “nuclear option” to abolish the filibuster for lower federal court nominations. MacDonough, along with Republican Senators at the time, warned that setting the precedent could later be used to end the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations—a prediction which came to pass in 2017.
MacDonough has received high praise from Senators on both sides of the aisle but has repeatedly drawn the ire of progressive Democrats by ruling against some of their more far-reaching policy changes that they’ve tried to include in past reconciliation bills. The Senate Parliamentarian’s rulings on former President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan—a reconciliation bill—saw House progressives, including Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN), demand that MacDonough be fired. Notably, MacDonough ruled against the inclusion of a $15 an hour minimum wage provision, and most significantly, determined that the inclusion of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the legislation violated the Byrd Rule, stating, “changing the law to clear the way to (Legal Permanent Resident) status is tremendous and enduring policy change that dwarfs its budgetary impact.”
OVERRULE OR FIRE?
While Senate Republicans currently insist they will not resort to extreme measures should McDonough rule against provisions in the reconciliation bill, they’ve already used a procedural move last month to prevent the Senate Parliamentarian from ruling on a separate piece of legislation. In May, the Senate overturned California’s electric vehicle mandates using a series of procedural votes and then an expedited final vote under the Congressional Review Act, effectively ending the debate and holding a final vote before the Senate Parliamentarian could rule on the matter. While this end-around maneuver worked for a single subject and relatively uncomplicated measure, such a procedural move will not work with the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.”
Regarding the reconciliation bill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has insisted, “We’re not going there,” when asked whether he or any other Republican acting as the presiding chair would overrule determinations made by the Senate Parliamentarian under the Byrd Rule. In essence, the Senate Republicans appear to be signaling that they will not overturn past precedent nor use any controversial procedural measures to reduce McDonough’s role in the process.
However, two wrinkles could change the current state of affairs. Namely, the constitutional presiding officer of the United States Senate is actually Vice President J.D. Vance. Should Vance decide to arrive at the Senate and assume his constitutional role, there is not much Sen. Thune or other members can do to prevent him from overruling the Senate Parliamentarian, outside of holding a vote to override the Vice President’s decision. This scenario would be similar to the 1975 legislative involving then-Vice President Rockefeller.
Secondly, if MacDonough’s rulings are seen by Sen. Thune or the Senate Republicans as a whole as being too far afield, we could see a situation like 2001 when then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) fired then-Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove over a series of rulings against Republicans on reconciliation and other budget measures. While Thune might not be willing to overrule MacDonough directly, should the Senate Parliamentarian act too partisan with her Byrd Rule determinations, the Senate Majority Leader is well within his right to fire her.
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